Hub

Epidemic Sim

Day 0
Sick 0

Peak: -

Compare keeps this run's curve as a dashed line, then starts again with the same dots. Change a slider and see if the curve flattens.

How to play

  1. Watch the pink germ spread from dot to dot. The chart fills in below.
  2. Press Compare, then slide up masks, vaccines or distancing.
  3. Is the pink hill lower and wider than the dashed line? That's a flattened curve.
Do thisPhoneKeyboard
Make a dot sickTap itI (a random dot)
Pause / PlayPause buttonP
New runButtonN
CompareButtonC
SlidersDragTab + arrows

What's happening?

  • When a sick dot touches a healthy one, the germ might jump. The infection chance says how likely.
  • Sick dots get better after a while and can't catch it again. Vaccinated dots never catch it.
  • A mask halves the chance, on each side. Two masks: a quarter.
  • Distancing means fewer dots wander about, so there are fewer meetings.
  • A flat curve means fewer people are sick at the same time, so hospitals can cope.

Try this: find the smallest % vaccinated that stops the outbreak from taking off. That's called herd immunity. Does it change if you make the germ more catching?